WTXS32 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 77.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 77.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.3S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.8S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.2S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.0S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.1S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 77.4E. 05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN 11 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED EYE IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 051623Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KTS, AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS T6.1 (117 KTS). TC 24S IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE EAST TURNING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. AFTERWARDS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, TURNING TC 24S TO A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING DYNAMICS, INCREASING THE MODEL SPREAD TO 263 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.// NNNN