ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 05MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 
051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.2S 42.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 44.6E, APPROXIMATELY 173 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 
051542Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BUILDING CONVECTION WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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