WTXS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 95.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 95.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.7S 95.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.7S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.5S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 95.5E. 05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN COMPLETELY SHEARED APART, WITH MODEST CONVECTION SHEARED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION INDICATIVE OF THE LLCC IN A 051016Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE BETWEEN T2.0-T2.5 (30- 35 KTS) TO ACCOUNT FOR SPIN DOWN TIME. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOL SSTS (24C) OVERCOMING THE VERY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36, AS IT DISSIPATES BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN