WTXS32 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 75.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 75.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.0S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.9S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.3S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.3S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.9S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.0S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 75.9E. 05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 24S HAS UNDERGONE A CYCLE OF EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI) OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. A SMALL 10NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPED JUST PRIOR TO 0600Z WITH DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE VERY SMALL AND INTENSE CORE. A 050630Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THE VERY WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE 37GHZ IMAGE CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG CYAN RING SIGNATURE, INDICATIVE OF THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS, HEDGED LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). ADT REMAINS LOW AT T4.0 DUE TO CONSTRAINTS, WHILE THE SATCON WAS ALSO UNREALISTICALLY LOW; HOWEVER THE SSMIS CONSTITUENT OF SATCON WAS A MORE REALISTIC 96 KTS. DUE TO THE ERI, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OBVIOUSLY VERY FAVORABLE WITH VERY LOW (5-7 KTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. TC 24P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 BUT TURN EAST AS THE NER FLATTENS OUT BY TAU 24. THROUGH TAU 72 A STR BUILDS EQUATORWARD TO THE EAST, FORCING A TURN TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER A STRONG STR WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTH AND TURN TC 24P ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNEXPECTED ERI, THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE IS STILL BEING TRIPPED AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CYAN RING IN THE 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF 100 KTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE STARTING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BUT OVERALL AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. SPREAD INCREASES TO 150NM AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 220NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN