WTXS31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 94.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 94.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.5S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.7S 95.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.6S 96.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.1S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 94.7E. 05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONVECTION OFFSET AND CONFINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 042346Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND A SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 041911Z OF 49 KNOTS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TC 22P IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SUBOPTIMAL 25 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA OVER EVEN COOLER (23-24 DEGREE CELSIUS) WATERS. NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN