WTPS31 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 152.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 152.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.4S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.4S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 21.8S 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 24.3S 169.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 27.8S 178.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 153.4E. 04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED UNDER DENSE CONVECTION. A 041752Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CONFIRMS THE POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED OFF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES OF T5.0-5.5 AND A 041449Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWING A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 89 KNOTS. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 23P HAS RAPIDLY PICKED UP TRACK SPEED AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE TC 23P MAINTAINS ITS FAVORABLE ENIVONRMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND MAINTAIN AT 110 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE ENCOUNTERING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO 172NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// NNNN