WTXS32 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 73.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 73.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.6S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.9S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.9S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.7S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.6S 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 73.9E. 04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CORE REGION. A 041414Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM JTWC AND A 041644Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, SOUTH OF THE NER UNTIL THE NER WEAKENS AND TC 24S BEGINS TO LOOP TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 24S. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48 DESPITE A GRADUAL DIP IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AFTERWARDS, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, LEADING TO INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST TO 75 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OUT TO 200NM AT TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN AVAIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN