ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 041500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 593 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 
041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.2S 42.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 43.1E, APPROXIMATELY 274 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 041556Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS BUILDING CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S 
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, BEFORE 
MOVING OVER MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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