WTXS32 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 72.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 72.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.6S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.3S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 15.9S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.7S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.3S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.4S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.4S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 73.0E. 04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CORE REGION. A 041147Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH WAS ALSO PRESENT, THOUGH PRESENTED AS A WEAKER SIGNATURE, IN THE 37GHZ BAND. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE WITH GOOD EFFECT AND OVERALL LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM FMEE, AND HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) DUE TO THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION BETWEEN TAU 36-72 AS THE NER TO THE NORTH RECEDES TO THE WEST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WHILE TURNING TO TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE NER MOVES FURTHER WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF TC 24S BY TAU 72 AND DISRUPT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INCREASING VWS, LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 24, THOUGH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALL CONCURS ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY GFS LYING FURTHER EQUATORWARD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON MOVEMENT OF TC 24S. WITH 60 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO 180 NM BY TAU 120, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN