ABIO10 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/041500Z-041800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041353ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 041500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 04MAR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 593 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 
041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 67.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
17.2S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, 
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH. A 041035Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISTINCTLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION WITH 
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MOST OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. A 040650Z METOP-C 
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS) 
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S 
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, 
POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA, BEFORE MOVING OVER 
MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD AFTER 
MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS A LOW. 
UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) WITH WARNING STATUS.//
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