WTXS31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 21.8S 93.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 93.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.1S 94.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.5S 95.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.8S 95.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.8S 96.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 27.9S 96.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 94.1E. 04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 593 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK, FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE EASTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 041006Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS), AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KTS. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (7-12 KTS) VWS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C WHICH IS SERVING TO CUT OFF ITS ENERGY SOURCE AND PUT A CAP ON ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, IT WILL START TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL TRANSIENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT SPREAD INCREASES AFTER TAU 48 WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION AND WHEN THE STEERING SWITCHES TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN