WTXS21 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 68.8E TO 17.2S 75.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 69.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 
67.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 032043Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLES. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050300Z.//
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