WTXS31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 93.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 93.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.9S 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.3S 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.9S 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 26.3S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 28.6S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 93.5E. 04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A 032356Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/55 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOLING (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD. AT TAU 48, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BRINGS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING VWS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER (22-23C) SSTS AND INCREASING VWS (35-45 KNOTS), DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.// NNNN