WTPS31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 148.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 148.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.6S 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.8S 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.5S 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.8S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 25.9S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 31.2S 179.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 148.6E. 03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE 10-NM EYE WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACCELERATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 031808Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 23P IS LOCATED ABOUT 62NM EAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF (15.49S 147.12E), WHICH IS REPORTING 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE WINDS (35-40 KNOTS) GUSTING AS HIGH AS 51 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM'S EYEWALL IS EVIDENT ON THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 23P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG MAJOR TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AIDS, THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT CYAN RING FEATURE IN THE 031808Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND THE FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE IN EIR, TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER AND PEAK AT A HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23P WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM-FORCE LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// NNNN