WTXS31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 92.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 92.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.3S 93.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.5S 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.0S 95.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.4S 95.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.9S 96.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.4S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 92.4E. 03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1235 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GREATLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED BUT DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE 031019Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15KTS+) AND COOLING SSTS (25C). TC 22S HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND ALLOWED A SECONDARY STR TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND ASSUME STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF TC MARIAN BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.// NNNN