WTPS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 14.8S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.1S 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.8S 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.9S 153.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.5S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 25.8S 171.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 30.3S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 148.3E. 03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND IN THE CORAL SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 022046Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ PASS THAT INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65KTS) FROM PGTW/ABRF/KNES, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AND DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT REMAINS IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ONCE THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS DUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS NIRAN BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW LESS THAN 200NM BY TAU 48, HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO WELL OVER 1,300NM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// NNNN