WTXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 90.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 90.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.4S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.3S 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.7S 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.1S 95.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.6S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.7S 97.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 91.2E. 03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1317 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE EYEWALL IS ERODING AND BECOMING MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77KTS) FROM PGTW, T4.0 (65KTS) FROM APRF, AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) ASSESSED AS T4.6 (79KTS). THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25- 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALONG WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 26C WHICH ARE COOLING AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TC 22S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS A COMPETING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH STRUGGLE TO STEER THE SYSTEM FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE STR TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A SECONDARY STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND ASSUMES THE STEERING AND EVENTUALLY DRIVES THE CYCLONE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FOR TC 22S AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 65NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 AND DIVERGING TO A CROSS- TRACK SPREAD OF 190NM BY TAU 72, WHEREBY IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. EXPECT FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96, LENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.// NNNN