WTPS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 148.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 148.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.2S 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.7S 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 16.3S 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.4S 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.8S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.5S 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.0S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 148.7E. 02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND IN THE CORAL SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 021820 SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS PGTW AND ABRF, AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.4 (53 KTS), KNES ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER AT T3.0/45KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE NER WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DRIVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS DUE TO PASS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 72. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ERODE DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS NIRAN BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW LESS THAN 400NM BY TAU 72, HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 THE ACROSS TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO WELL OVER 1,300NM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// NNNN