WTPS31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 14.9S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.1S 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.5S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.4S 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 20.0S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 25.4S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 31.9S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.3E. 02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND. ADDITIONALLY, A 020830Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SUNSET IMAGE, SHOWED OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND A DIMPLE FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM THE RAGGED, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 020854Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW), T3.5/55KTS (ABRF), T4.0/65KTS (KNES), AND T3.6/57KTS (ADT) THAT REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, PARTLY OFFSET BY LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE COL, AND BY TAU 24, DRIVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE AROUND TAU 78, AND BY TAU 120, SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE TC TRANSITIONS FROM THE COL AND ACROSS TRACK SPREAD TO OVER 1,000NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// NNNN