WTXS31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 89.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 89.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.0S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.6S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.7S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 22.0S 93.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 25.1S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.8S 96.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 30.0S 97.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 90.0E. 02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A RAGGED 30-NM EYE, ALBEIT WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR SLIGHT TILT AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 021032Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM APRF AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT ARE OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TEPID (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 22S IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE STR TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A SECONDARY STR BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST TO ASSUME STEERING AND EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A TIGHT PACK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ON THE STEERING TRANSITION AND EVENTUAL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.// NNNN