WTPS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.8S 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.0S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.2S 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.8S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.5S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 23.1S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 29.1S 176.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.1E. 02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONSOLIDATION AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED AND THE COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 0410Z ASMR2 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW/KNES) AND THE SATCON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, OFFSET BY A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. TC 23P IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE COL, AND BY TAU 24, DRIVE IT INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE TAU 96, AND BY TAU 120, SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE TC TRANSITIONS FROM THE COL AND ACROSS TRACK SPREAD TO OVER 700NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// NNNN