WTXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.8S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.2S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.9S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.8S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.4S 94.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 26.8S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.0S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 89.6E. 02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1399 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DECREASED IN SIZE TO 25NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE EYE FEATURE ON MSI LOOP AND BOTH THE 020025Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES WHICH SHOW A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE ACCOMPANYING 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE IS IN THE COOLING PHASE AND IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED LOWER THAN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) OF T5.5 (102 KTS), AND PLACED IN LINE WITH AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LIMITS THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW LIMITING THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH TC MARIAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AFTER TAU 12. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 96 AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER A MID-LEVEL LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 69NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND ONLY INCREASES TO 120NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.// NNNN