WTPS31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 146.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 146.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.4S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.2S 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.2S 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.4S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.9S 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 17.7S 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 20.6S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 147.0E. 01MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF AND ARLINGTON REEF AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM CAIRNS PROVIDED GOOD CLARIFICATION ON THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, WHICH HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-45 KTS FOR THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5 (35 KTS) AND ADT IS A BIT LOWER AT T2.2. HOWEVER, MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT BOUGAINVILLE REEF HAS FALLEN STEADILY AND NOW IS NEAR 992 MB, WHICH PROVIDES SUPPORT TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY FAVORABLE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KTS) FROM THE EAST, AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-30C). HOWEVER OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE WEST AND A WEAKER CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH. THE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX, WITH THE SYSTEM TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT HOWEVER LIES TO THE WEST BETWEEN TC 22S AND THE STR TO THE WEST, LEADING TO THE CURRENT MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE STR TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST WHILE THE NER STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO PERFORM A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND ULTIMATELY SETTLING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION BY TAU 36. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK OUTFLOW THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES, ALLOWING FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 70 KTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS STILL DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING EAST AFTER TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND THEN ACCELERATION SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPICT A LARGE AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM LOOPING MOTION, AS WELL AS THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// NNNN