WTXS31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.6S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.9S 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.2S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.9S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.6S 95.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.2S 96.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 89.4E. 01MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF COOLED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 011045Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MIC EYE FEATURE, WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ACCOMPANYING 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TILTED ALONG THE DOWN-SHEAR AXIS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EYE TILTED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, CONFIRMED BY HWRF CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHT LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND MUCH LOWER THAN THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.6, BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND THE INCREASINGLY RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MUCH FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS MUCH WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ISOLATED FOR ANY TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES. UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING, WHILE A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER A MID-LEVEL LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 65NM SPREAD INCREASING TO ONLY 120NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.// NNNN