WTXS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 90.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 90.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.2S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.5S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.7S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.1S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.4S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 22.0S 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.7S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 90.3E. 01MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE THE 28/0741Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE AND THE 28/1058Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, TC 22S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 28/2210Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS MOSTLY ERODED WITHIN AN OBLONG OUTER EYEWALL DOMINATING. DUE TO THE ERC, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS). TC 22S HAS SLOWED AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL DEEPEN AND WEAKEN THE STR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 36. DUE TO THE ERC AND POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO UPWELL COOLER WATER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM RE-STRENGTHENS AFTER ERC. AFTER TAU 12, COOLER SST VALUES AND UPWELLING COOLER WATER SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. AFTER TAU 36, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY ERODE THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC MARIAN WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO COOLER SST (26-25C) VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 24 AND DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72 WITH A 170NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.// NNNN