WTXS31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E. 28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0- T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.// NNNN