WTPS21 PGTW 281300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 17.2S 147.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9S 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
140 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AND A 280702Z 
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281011Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL 
DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST 
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OFF THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011300Z.//
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