ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 280600Z-010600ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.4S 148.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
156 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 280300Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 272347Z ASCAT-C 
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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