WTXS31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 92.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 92.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.5S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.9S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.3S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.5S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.1S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.9S 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.7S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 91.8E. 28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 19NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 272223Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL AND WEAKER BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). DUE TO THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE EYE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 AND A 280010Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 4.4 (75 KNOTS). TC 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW OR QUASI- STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY ERODE THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC MARIAN SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS THEN WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO COOLER SST (26-25C) VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 48 AND DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72 WITH A 190NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 010300Z.// NNNN