WTXS31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 93.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 93.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.0S 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.5S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.9S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.3S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.7S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.8S 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.1S 95.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 93.0E. 27FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH AN ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND MUCH WEAKER CONVECTION PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE EAST-SOUTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 271039Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) OVER THE JAVA SEA, TO A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE STEADILY SLOWING AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND MOVES TO A POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE TC. BY TAU 72, THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER NER TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING TC 22S ONTO AN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KTS AS VWS DECREASES AND THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER AS MODELS DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHIFT IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AROUND TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.// NNNN