WTXS31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZFEB2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 100.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 100.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 14.9S 95.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.6S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.2S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.4S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.4S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.4S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 99.7E. 26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 252336Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, THE ABOVE ANIMATION, AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 120. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 90NM THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO 280 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGHER SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260200).// NNNN