WTXS21 PGTW 250330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 107.8E TO 14.3S 98.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 106.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.3S 110.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
712 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 242118Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 
STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15KTS) AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260330Z.//
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