WTXS31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 30.9S 39.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 39.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 33.7S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 37 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 37.3S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 40.4E. 21FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CENTRAL CLOUD TOPS AND UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 211050Z ASMR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20KTS+), AND COOLING SST (26C AND DROPPING). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12; AFTERWARD, DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM- FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z.// NNNN