WTXS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 36.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 36.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 26.6S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 27.9S 36.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 29.9S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 32.4S 42.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 37.7S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 36.3E. 20FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE STORM, IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 21S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE IN MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 200300Z.// NNNN