WTXS31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 36.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 36.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 25.9S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 27.1S 36.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 28.8S 37.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 31.2S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 36.4S 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 36.4E. 19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE, TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND A SMALL, 7NM EYE FEATURE. AN 191608Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL MICROWAVE EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM FMEE, HIGHER THAN AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T4.2 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 78 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND IMPROVED, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW HELPING THE SYSTEM TAP INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 24 TO 36. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DURING THE TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// NNNN