WTXS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 36.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 36.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.3S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 26.0S 36.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 27.3S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.0S 37.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 34.0S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 36.7E. 19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. AN 190225Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL MICROWAVE EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 190225Z GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5- 4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND APPEARANCE OF THE WEAK EYE FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24 AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.// NNNN