WTXS21 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9S 34.1E TO 20.8S 37.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6S 35.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 22.3S 33.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 35.1E, APPROXIMATELY 136 
NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 152224Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE 
IMAGE, DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA 
WITH A LARGE AREA OF UNSTRUCTURED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO 
THE NORTHWEST. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, ONCE 
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO WARM (29 TO 
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES 
OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD 
TURN. 93S IS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170300Z.//
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