ABIO10 PGTW 160330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/160330Z-161800ZFEB2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251ZFEB2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) N E, APPROXIMATELY NM NORTH OF . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 33.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 35.1E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 152224Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH A LARGE AREA OF UNSTRUCTURED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD TURN. 93S IS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 32.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR S E, APPROXIMATELY NM NORTH OF . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN