ABIO10 PGTW 151800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZFEB2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 32.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 33.8E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTED BY THE 151620Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 93S IS CURRENTLY OVERLAND EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT OFF THE COAST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 93S WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITHIN 36 HOURS, REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL; HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY 93S REMAINS TO THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN