ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.0N 139.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 217 
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
142357Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A 
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142243Z ASCAT-A PASS 
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20KT WINDS WITH A RELATIVELY 
SMALL AREA OF 20-25KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL 
TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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