ABIO10 PGTW 150230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/150230Z-151800ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
22.8S 32.5E, APPROXIMATELY 168NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE, 
MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED IN A 142319Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM HAS 
WEAKENED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO 
IMPROVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 93S WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND 
EMERGE OVER WARM WATER (29-30C) IN 36-48 HOURS WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. 
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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