WTXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 79.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 79.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.6S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 19.3S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.9S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.8E. 13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1241 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 131638Z MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST, OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), A 131800Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.2 (32 KNOTS) AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GALE-FORCE GRADIENT WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL AS WEAK INFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, OR PERHAPS SOONER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// NNNN