WTXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 80.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 80.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.7S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.7S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 19.4S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.1S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 79.8E. 13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1269 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130407Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED MULTI-AGENCY (PGTW AND FMEE) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT) RANGING FROM T3.0-T3.2 (45-47 KTS). A PARTIAL 130409Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED 35-40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 175NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// NNNN