WTXS32 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.3S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.5S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.3S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 19.0S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.1S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 80.4E. 12FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1325 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DISPLACED RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR. THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT THE POSITIONING. DVORAK DATA-T VALUES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY, AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM T3.5 TO T4.0. THE 121800Z CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS T3.2 (49 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS A DEEP LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW, AND PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FARAJI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR DEVELOPS, THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 48. THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VWS. DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND CURRENTLY OBSERVED AND THE OUTLOOK FOR UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A DISSIPATION OVER WATER AT TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 110 NM AT TAU 72, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. // NNNN