WTXS32 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 82.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 82.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.3S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.5S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.2S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.4S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.3S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.2S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 81.8E. 12FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1408 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TRACING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.5 (FMEE AND FIMP, 77KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC FARAJI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT TO A DEEP LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING DESPITE WARM SST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 96 AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND VWS DECREASES, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. WHEN REMOVING THE NAVGEM TRACK FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE MAXIMUM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS IS 350 NM AT TAU 120. THIS LOW SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE POLEWARD BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.// NNNN