ABIO10 PGTW 120100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/120100Z-121800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11FEB21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 884NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:  
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 23.8S 37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 23.2E, APPROXIMATELY 92 
NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION , GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 111901Z MHS NOAA 89H GHZ IMAGE 
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 111954Z ASCAT(METOP-C) PASS DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH 30-35KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLC AND WEAKER 
WINDS TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 93S 
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, MAINTAINING AN ASYMTETRIC WINDFIELD, 
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL 
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO 
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM AND REASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. AREA IS NOW LOCATED 
IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
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