WTXS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 83.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 83.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.2S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.7S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.9S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.9S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 83.2E. 11FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A BULLSEYE 1635Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (PGTW, FMEE 77 KTS) AND FIMP (T5.0 90 KTS) WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DECREASING TREND ON CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (70 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD, IT WILL REPOSITION FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. MODERATE VWS, COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND CONTINUED WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SST AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 280NM AT TAU 120, EXCEPTING THE SOLE OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. THE NAVGEM SOLUTION REMAINS FAR LEFT OF TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN MOVES RIGHT OF TRACK BY TAU 96. NAVGEM LAGS FAR BEHIND ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS BY NEARLY 600NM FROM THE NEAREST SOLUTIONS, LENDING OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.// NNNN