ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 903 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 23.8S 37.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8S 37.4E, APPROXIMATELY 116 
NM EAST OF MAXIXE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
111602Z MHS NOAA 89H GHZ IMAGE FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO 
THE EAST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BURGEONING POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL 
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, ENCOUNTERING LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH 
MINIMAL OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE//
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