WTXS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 84.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 84.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.9S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.4S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.8S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.9S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.8S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.2S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.1S 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 84.4E. 11FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 903 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO A FORMING 8 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (PGTW, 102 KTS) AND T5.0 (FMEE AND FIMP, 90 KTS) WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.4 (100 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL REPOSITION FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. MODERATE VWS COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND CONTINUED WARM (28-39 CELSIUS) SST AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM MODEL PROVIDES A FAR LEFT OF TRACK (POLEWARD) SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE STEERING STR REPOSITIONING RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, COUPLED WITH A 400 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120, LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// NNNN