WTXS32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 85.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 85.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.3S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.7S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.2S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.5S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.8S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.4S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.5S 75.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 85.3E. 10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 923 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED AN OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A RAGGED, ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED, 15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT, THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 101559Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT AND CLUSTERED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.8/86KTS FROM SATCON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE. ALONG-TRACK SST REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12; AFTERWARD, AS THE TC TRANSITIONS TO A WESTWARD TRACK, THE RELATIVE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE (15-20KTS), OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 19S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENVELOPE SPREADING TO OVER 270NM BY TAU 120 AND NAVGEM REMAINING THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN